Edition #3 - Why Product Development Timelines Fail and What Leaders Need to Know

In product development, there’s a common joke that a project manager’s job is simply to track failure. All too often deadlines slip, schedules get reset, and frustration builds.

The most common reason for this isn’t poor project management, it’s a failure to understand which aspects of a product’s design carry the most risk of not being realised on time and then planning for those aspects.

Why Understanding Risk is Key

Think about a new product your business has recently developed or is currently developing. If it’s an iteration of an existing product with minor aesthetic updates and small refinements, you can fairly easily set and stick to a predictable timeline. But if it’s a completely new product with unresolved technical challenges or uncertainties, timelines can quickly become meaningless.

Most product development projects fall somewhere between these two extremes, of minor adjustments to current products to creating something entirely novel. Within those projects, usually some aspects of the design are well understood and therefore low risk in terms of blowing out a timeline, while others push into new territory meaning timelines are largely unable to be predicted. To manage a timeline effectively, you need to break down the product into its individual components, features, or functions (whatever makes sense for that particular product) and assess the level of risk to sticking to the timeline that each one presents.

The Risk Spectrum

Every component, feature, or function in your product sits somewhere on the following risk spectrum, from 1 (low risk) to 8 (high risk):

1. Proven in market – Currently used in your products with a positive track record in market.
2. Proven in market, but with some adaptation needed – Used in similar products made by others with a positive track record in market OR used in your products but with some issues in market needing resolution.
3. Proven in market, but with moderate adaptation needed – Used in similar products with some issues in market OR proven for different applications, with a positive track record in market.
4. Proven in market, but with significant adaptation needed – Used in different applications with known issues in market requiring resolution.
5. Proven at scale, but not in market – A new concept that has been successfully scaled, but lacks market history.
6. Prototyped, but unproven at scale – A new concept that has worked in prototype form but hasn’t been proven at production scale.
7. Technically feasible, but not prototyped –Modelling or similar has proven the technical feasibly, but it hasn’t been fully built and tested yet.
8. Technical Uncertainty – A new concept with unresolved technical challenges.

What This Means for Your Timeline

1-2: Low risk. These components should stick to the planned schedule. For 2, extra work is required.
3-4: Medium risk. Requires problem-solving—either improving on an existing product or adapting something from a different industry. For 4, more work is required.
5: Higher risk. Since there’s no market history, expect learning curves during verification. A staged market entry can help manage risk.
6-8: High risk. These require significant validation. Anything rated 8 is an R&D activity and should be handled separately from product development. It should only be integrated once the technical uncertainty is resolved.
Managing High-Risk Elements

For anything rated 5-7, assume a high chance of delays. To prevent these from derailing the entire product launch:

• Run development work in parallel. Treat these elements as separate workstreams rather than dependencies.
• Have proven contingencies. If the risky feature isn’t ready in time, you should have a fallback option that ensures the product can still launch on schedule.
• Pull in high-risk elements only when ready. If a new concept is successfully validated during development, great, incorporate it. If not, you have a solid alternative in place.

Timeline failures in product development aren’t random, they result from underestimating risk. By assessing each component and planning accordingly, you can take control of your development schedule and avoid costly surprises.
And as a business leader, you don’t need to guess. You just need to ask the right questions, about proof, about what’s been validated, and about where the unknowns lie. This is how you keep projects moving and avoid the costly trap of delays that no one saw coming.

In the next newsletter, we will dive into risk mitigation through the use of sound product design principles, starting with the concept of fail-safe design.